Tuesday, December 06, 2005

Cautiously optimistic about China's future

Western leaders and the western media in general busy themselves calling for a democratic People's Republic of China. Whether they do so for political reasons or PR reasons or otherwise I don't know, but to see democracy as a solution for all of China's problems is a horribly simplistic view.

China's population in itself presents challenges independent of its political system. Equally startling as its sheer size, what presents a greater problem is the large division between various social classes. The urbanized population, which controls almost the entire economy, represents only about a third of China's total population. People here have access to education and healthcare. For the other two thirds who live in the countryside, they have benefitted little from China's economic reforms of the past two decades. Life expectancy is twenty or thirty years lower, the vast majority of the them are illiterate, and only the luckier ones have running water.

This social situation in itself presents a challenge for democracy to succeed. Because of the vast difference in lifestyles between the urbanized population and those who live in the countryside, no system can satisfy both these two segregations. Furthermore, with less than half of the country's population literate, do people even know enough to make an informed decision that best suits their own interests?

And that is another point. China's economic boom, while having raised the average standard of living, has been nothing but trouble for those less fortunate. When the country is devoting all of its efforts to economic expansion, those who are left by the wayside are left to suffer. Crop fields which generate an income for those who own them are being plowed up to make way for freeways, and those laid off from newly-privatized businesses in the streamlining process are forced into work as cabbies, maids, or even prostitution.

Needless to say, these things would not happen under a democratic system. At the same time, though, had China been run by a democratic system, such economic reforms would not have happened either. The ultimate question: "has it been worth it?" is incredibly challenging to answer.

While the fight for a democratic China inevitably brings reminders of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, the truth is that the shape of China has changed. While a few people still haven't given up the fight, the vast majority of the population that has benefitted from economic reforms is happy to accept the status quo. People in China now are far more concerned with building their own wealth than advocating democracy. In this state, these 1.3 billion people contribute to what I believe is the single most important reason why China is able to develop steadily: for the first time since the mid-Qing dynasty, China has enjoyed a period of relative stability and freedom from war, revolution, civil unrest and political turmoil. Should China steadily develop at this rate for another few decades and reach a level of stability, it will naturally facilitate itself for democracy. Until then, let's just wait it out for good things to happen and not set it off its intended course.

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